Next opponent: Browns could be tougher battle than anticipated

The Steelers are 8-2, coming off a huge win over the Ravens to solidify themselves atop the AFC North. But, there's no time to celebrate. Up next are the Browns, who are in the midst of a terrible season. However, the short week ahead of Thursday Night Football and unfavorable forecasted weather could make for a more difficult matchup than expected.

Here's a snapshot of what Cleveland brings into Week 12:

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Record: 2-8
Standing: Fourth, AFC North
Last result: Lost to Saints, 35-14

THE TREND

Coming off an 11-6 season, the Browns came into 2024 with the expectation to be contenders in the division and at least have decent odds at getting back into the playoffs.

Instead, the Browns have reverted back to a much more common horrific season in which they've been a complete mess. After a 1-1 start to the season, the Browns lost five straight to fall to 1-6. In the final game of that losing stretch, they lost starting quarterback Deshaun Watson for the season due to a torn Achilles tendon.

Watson's injury, however, might have been something that sparked some life into at least an attempt at a respectable finish to the season. Watson was statistically one of the worst quarterbacks in the league prior to his injury and was a big reason why they were in a complete free fall. But, they immediately beat the Ravens after Watson's injury, suffered a loss to a much better Chargers team and contended with the Saints for three quarters until they derailed in the final frame. More important than results, they've put up a fight more than they had all season with Watson under center.

That fight is why this shouldn't be considered an easy win for Pittsburgh. The Browns have already taken down the Ravens, and they'd love nothing more than to do it to their most-hated rival. In addition, the short week and a projected forecast of 20-30-mph winds and mixed precipitation could help level the playing field, even though the Steelers are the much better team on paper.

THE QUARTERBACK

With Watson out for the season, the Browns have turned to Jameis Winston, who made an immediate impact with a huge win over the Ravens. And while the quarterback play has been better since Winston took over, it's still pretty subpar.

With three starts and appearances in eight games under his belt this season, Winston has completed 61.4% of his passes for 1,047 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. His 90.8 passer rating is an improvement over Watson's, as is his 7.2 yards per attempt. However, since Winston took over as the starter in Week 8, he ranks 23rd in EPA (expected points added) per play and 30th in completion percentage above expected (CPOE). It's not been all that efficient.

There's a bit of a boom or bust dynamic with Winston. He's averaging 9.7 air yards since Week 8, which ranks seventh during that span. And occasionally, the throws will be quite exceptional:

But with that desire to throw downfield comes the chances for turnovers. All three of his interceptions came in the Browns' loss to the Chargers. As I said, boom or bust. He led the Browns to a win over the Ravens and stuck with the Saints for three quarters. When he's not turning the ball over, the Browns can be competitive in games.

Blitzing Winston might not be the way to force turnovers. It might just be letting him make a mistake. Winston has a 109.8 passer rating against the blitz. Meanwhile, he's got only an 84.8 passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket, and all three of his interceptions were thrown under those circumstances. The Steelers do, however, need to be on high alert out of play-action. Winston's posted a 150.4 passer rating out of play-action this season. So, making the Browns one-dimensional is a good way to force Winston to play the dropback game, which is not his strength.

THE OFFENSE

The Browns have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league. They rank 31st in scoring (16.2 points per game), 27th in total offense, 20th in passing offense and their very surprising 88.5 rushing yards per game ranks 29th. That's a far cry from their 12th-ranked rushing offense in 2023, most of that without Nick Chubb.

Of course, the Browns haven't had Chubb until he returned in Week 7 from the major knee injury suffered in Week 2 of the 2023 season against the Steelers. And, he's not getting the workload he got prior to his injury. He's averaging just 13.3 carries per game, and the majority of the receiving targets out of the backfield are going to Jerome Ford.

Now, the Steelers are plenty prepared for Ford. Mike Tomlin this week mentioned the big runs Ford had against them last season. But, they are as focused as always in slowing down Chubb, who can still make plays:

Despite trading away Amari Cooper, the Browns still have plenty of weapons in the passing game. David Njoku is a difficult tight end to contain. Jerry Jeudy is the team's leading receiver with 39 catches for 560 yards. Njoku also has 39 catches, as does Elijah Moore. But perhaps another guy worth watching is Cedric Tillman, who leads the team with three touchdown receptions.

But, a lot of what the Browns want to do through the air relies on their running game, which just hasn't been very good this season. Their offensive line has played below expectations, which may help explain why Cleveland ranks 29th in rush EPA and rush success rate. The key for the Steelers in this game is making Winston beat them through the air.

THE DEFENSE

The Browns haven't been all that better on defense, as they come into this game with the 24th-ranked scoring defense. They are also ranked 24th against the run, but are expectedly better against the pass (16th).

The strength of the Browns' defense begins up front with reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. Whether or not he deserved the award, Garrett is still one of the league's premier pass rushers. Tomlin called him a "game-wrecker" this week, and he is capable of doing exactly that any given week. He's flanked by Ogbo Okoronkwo on the opposite edge, while Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris are very stout defenders on the inside. Surprisingly, the Browns rank 25th in rush EPA against, but the Steelers' offensive line should still have their hands full trying to run the ball.

The other strength is at cornerback. Greg Newsome II is having a down year, but he will still be respected by the Steelers as a premier cornerback. As will Denzel Ward, who might be on par with Garrett in terms of game-wrecking abilities. He's simply outstanding in coverage and his nose for the ball is difficult to deal with:

The true weakness of the Browns' defense rests on the second level at off-ball linebacker. Their standout guy, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, is on injured reserve, which is a big loss for this group. Now it's down to Jordan Hicks, Mohamoud Diabate and former Steeler Devin Bush to handle business there. It's just not the same, and it hurts Cleveland in both run defense and pass coverage.

The thing I'm watching for in this game is how the Browns try to play against the Steelers' offense. The Ravens played two-high looks thrice as often as they normally do, intending to take away the deep ball outside the numbers. The Browns, however, are second in the league in running middle-field closed coverages, which are Cover 1 and Cover 3. They play the former more than anything, allowing their stellar cornerbacks to play a lot of man coverage. If the Browns stick to their way of playing defense, and if the weather permits, the deep ball outside the numbers could be there for the Steelers.

THE SPECIAL TEAMS

Dustin Hopkins handles the placekicking duties, and there's some inconsistencies here. While he has a leg and has a long of 56 yards this season, he's made just 14 of 20 attempts, with four of his misses coming from beyond 50 yards. He's also missed two extra points. The Steelers have a distinct advantage here. On the other hand, Corey Bojorquez has a canon for a leg. He's averaging 51.4 yards per punt, and only three of his 55 punts have resulted in touchbacks. It's also worth noting the Browns have allowed one kick return touchdown and one punt return touchdown this season.

THE INJURY REPORT

• Geoff Swaim, TE (concussion) -- Swaim hasn't practiced this week and Stefanski ruled him out on Monday as the tight end is in the concussion protocol. Swaim is typically the third tight end behind Njoku and Jordan Akins.

• Jedrick Wills, OT (knee) -- Wills didn't play against the Saints this past Sunday, and was listed as a DNP Monday and was limited in Tuesday's practice. With Dawand Jones now on injured reserve, Wills' potential absence in this game could make the Browns very weak at left tackle. Wednesday's injury report will be interesting to see.

• Myles Garrett, DE (hip) -- Garrett popped up on Tuesday's injury report as a DNP, but there's been little indication that he could actually miss Thursday night's game. Still, it's something to monitor ahead of Wednesday's final injury report.

• Denzel Ward, CB (ribs/ankle) -- Ward exited this past Sunday's game with a chest injury during the second quarter but returned to the field following halftime, a game in which he recorded four tackles, an interception, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and an additional pass defensed. Ward has been listed as a limited participant for both Monday and Tuesday, but the expectation is he'll play Thursday.

• Greg Newsome II, CB (shoulder) -- Stefanski said Monday that Newsome is day-to-day with his shoulder injury, which explains why he's been a limited participant through the first two days of the week. His status isn't nearly as certain, so we'll see what happens with Wednesday's final injury report.

• Joel Bitonio, G (pectoral) -- Bitonio was limited both Monday and Tuesday, but there hasn't been anything out of Cleveland that he's in danger of missing Thursday night's game.

• Elijah Moore, WR (shoulder) -- Same as most of the players who have been limited this week, the team hasn't yet suggested that Moore's in any danger of missing Thursday night's game.

• David Njoku, TE (knee) -- To maintain the running theme of players limited Monday and Tuesday, nothing out of Cleveland suggests Njoku is in real danger of sitting out Thursday night.

Players on injured reserve:

• Hakeem Adeniji, OT (knee)
• David Bell, WR (hip)
• Tony Brown II, DB (foot)
• Mike Hall Jr., DT (knee)
• Myles Harden, CB (shin)
• Nick Harris, FB/C (ankle)
• James Hudson III, OT (shoulder)
• Charley Hughlett, LS (ribs)
• Dawand Jones, OT (leg)
• Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB (neck)
• Deshaun Watson, QB (Achilles)
• Alex Wright, DE (triceps)
• Luke Wypler, C (ankle)

QUOTABLE

"I've never complained about the trophy not being in my house, and vice versa, he shouldn't be feeling two ways about it going to me. We're just gonna play the game. I don't play against T.J. He doesn't play against me. We're playing to do what we're supposed to, go out and do what we're supposed to, win the game and dominate on defense. It's up for grabs this year. We'll see the best man win." -- Myles Garrett on T.J. Watt not attending the NFL Honors ceremony earlier this year

"I believe the Steelers, since I've been growing up, have had great leadership from the head coach position. Coach Mike Tomlin is one of the best of the best, so his team definitely reflects on the type of person that he is. So, I know that's why the team is very disciplined and that's why they play with their whole heart." -- Jameis Winston on Mike Tomlin's success

"You know each other, you play against the same guys and it becomes tough. I think every division has that, but I think the AFC North just has been built on toughness and defense and running the ball, and you feel it in all of the rivalry games." -- Joel Bitonio on the "tough, hard-nosed football" he expects when facing the Steelers